Florida’s indifferent real estate market in Tampa…huh ?
February 9, 2008
ep, it?s that time again. The NAR Real Estate forecast report was released on Thursday February 7th. As is usual with NAR?s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, he mixes it up to the point you just have to say ?huh ?
The title of the report itself really sets it up. ?Existing-Home Sales to Hold in Narrow Range, then Begin Upward Trend??huh ?
This is the summary of the report by NAR: Soft market conditions are forecast to continue for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with improvement expected by the second half of this year if loan limits are increased?.. huh ?
Current housing conditions vary widely? huh ?
You can review the report your self from the link above but from all accounts they are saying the market is so, so?.which according to the dictionary I checked means it?s an indifferent market?huh ?
Well now that I have dispensed with the things that make you go huh ?
The real meat and potatoes came out about (2) days earlier from a local source that I find a bit more reliable or credible, however you like to portray the data, NAR does not really have a great track record of getting to the issue at heart without um..making you say huh ? OK I promise no more. Anyhow, the source of the data is an economic and financial consulting firm based here in Florida called FISHKIND and associates. At least as it pertains to Florida?s economic forecast they have the data to back up what they talk about. Dr. Hank Fishkind is often referred to in the Florida media as ?Florida’s best known economist ?. Dr. Fishkind presented his report to the Bay Area Real Estate Council on February 5th, 2008
Since our business is all about Florida?s Tampa Bay Area, hence Greater Tampa Bay Area Real Estate, we were really pleased to see that the reporting data shows that a good portion of the Tampa markets may have hit bottom and are ready for the turnaround to begin.
A few of the highlights of Hank Fishkinds February 5 meeting are:
1. HOME SALES: Pasco and Hernando counties’ housing markets have hit bottom and are most likely to start the the turn around ?.this will be seen later in the year. Hillsborough County is close to the bottom, but Pinellas County has a few more months in this downturn before home sales and prices will stabilize.
2. FORECLOSURES: While bad in certain neighborhoods, Dr. Fishkind thinks foreclosures have received way more press than they deserve. Measured against the total housing market here, they’re a “thimble in the ocean.”
3. AMENDMENT 1 PROPERTY TAX CUTS: Don’t expect any noticeable stimulus from tax cuts this year. We won’t get a tax break until next year. Plus people are still having difficulty selling their houses, making the portability issue a moot point.
4. CONDO CRISIS: Dr. Fishkind was not too high on condos in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. He said oversupply, combined with limited sales, “makes me nervous.” He sees no bottom yet here.
5. MORTGAGE RATES: Good news here. Dr. Fishkind expects home loan rates for credit worthy borrowers to continue to drop to below 5 percent this year. If you have equity left in your home , it will be a good time to refinance.
You can down-load a copy of Dr. Hank Fishkinds Power Point report in PDF format entitled **Economic Outlook U.S. and Tampa Bay/Bay Area Real Estate Council.
** Be sure to check out pages 28 to 63 of the PDF for Tampa Counties (158 to 197 as listed on the lower right corner of the presentation).
Dr. Fishkind also spoke on local Orlando Radio station with regards to the Amendment 1 Property Tax cuts. You can access the audio by clicking in this link >> Click here to listen to story.. (You don?t need an ipod to listen. If you have a PC with Windows Media Player installed ?..no problem.)
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How to stop foreclosure – 101
January 30, 2008
According to a New Report published yesterday by Realty Trac US Foreclosure activity increased 75% in 2007 over 2006 figures.
Nevada hit # 1 with Florida #2 followed by Michigan to round out the top 3.
The states with the highest household foreclosure rate were
1. Nevada (3.38 percent)
2. Florida (2 percent)
3. Michigan (1.95 percent)
4. California (1.92 percent)
5. Colorado (1.92 percent)
6. Ohio (1.8 percent)
7. Georgia (1.57 percent)
8. Arizona (1.52 percent)
9. Illinois (1.25 percent)
10.Indiana (1.03 percent)The U.S. average was 1.03 percent.
Following fresh on the report release was an interesting piece from the Today Show Wednesday, entitled Foreclosure 101 -
This interview is with Barbara Corcoran a so called business baroness. She is listed as one of the most powerful brokers in the U.S. Barbara is legendary for being the most well-known name in New York real estate and for having personally sold only three apartments. She is a Real Estate contributor on the payroll of MSNBC, who produces the Today Show.
In this news segment they break down exactly how a foreclosure process works.
Some of the not so pretty points:
- Foreclosures up 75% in the last year
- 1 out of every 100 homes are in Foreclosures
- 40% of Las Vegas Homes are in Foreclosure
- Most People don?t return calls to the bank
- Foreclosure starts after missing 3 payments
- Filing Bankruptcy doubles the time you can stay in your house
- Takes 3?18 Months before you lose your home
- Bankruptcy stall foreclosure
- It takes 6 years to restore your credit after foreclosure
- Bank Loses Average of $59,000 for each foreclosure
How to Stop a Foreclosure:
- Short Sale
- Apply for FHA Loan
- Ask for a reduced Payment
- Return the Deed
The take away from this according to Barbara, ?People don?t realize they have more muscle than they think when they are in financial trouble?.
I invite you to comment on this after viewing the video.
What are your thoughts ?
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Buy your home in Florida NOW
January 21, 2008
I wrote a post back in early November last year, Is now the right time to buy your Florida home ? The comments then are just as apropos now as they were then. However, I have some interesting recent data to add to this that lends even more support and definitively answers the question.
After reviewing the search word index over the last 45 days or so, I see a pattern that is emerging. That of many blog readers inquiring if it is safe to buy in Florida ? It would also appear that lot?s of buyers or should I say prospective buyers, have been sitting on the fence and many have been typing in the search engines all types of long tail questions that all center on the condition of the Florida Housing Market.
A lot of activity in the media and in and around the State itself is reason enough for a lot of the speculation and confusion among would be buyers.
On the one side you have the media that continues to projecting doom and gloom on the economy. You can expect this will continue throughout the year. But hey it?s an election year, why do you think this gets tons of press every day ?
The latest scare out on Friday was from a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association. This report talks about Baby Boomers and the Housing bubble, with yet another spin. The original report was published early in the week and then was carried by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday and by Friday it was over on Inman’s Blog. This latest scare says that the housing bubble now pails in comparison to what will happen when the Baby Boomers stop buying houses.
Right now there is so much speculation out there on the national markets. However, the one thing that is verifiable right here and now, in the Greater Tampa Florida Bay Area it?s time to buy a house now.
If you continue to sit on the fence you will lose a valuable opportunity to get a great deal at a mortgage rate that you will most likely not see again for some time to come.
Yes you will continue to hear negative things in the press. The economy has issues, and if the fed lowers the borrowing rate too-much it will spook the investing community and then Mortgage Rates will go up, not down.
Will the price of housing continue to move down ? Possibly, but there is opportunity a plenty right now and it is a true buyers market in Florida. If you wait, you then have to weigh the risk of a larger mortgage vs the small incremental price reduction you might see by waiting it out.
Call your local Realtor and ask them. Heck just click on the MLS link on our site (at the top of the page – looks like the one right below this paragraph) and you can search the entire State of Florida, take a look at the wonderful opportunities that await you in our great state.
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Central Florida First Time Home Buyers Workshops
January 10, 2008
First Time Home buyer Workshops?Updated Calendar for 2008
I have noticed quite a few in-bound links lately from those looking for more information about First Time Home Buyers programs and classes in Florida. Our post last year had a very good response and I had been planning on making an update but was waiting for the CCCS to update their list and it looks like they just recently did.
Your local community has tailor made programs to help ensure you have all the pertinent information that you will need as you make one of the biggest decisions of your life, that of becoming a home owner.
They will take you step-by-step, from contract to closing, through the home buying process. You will learn what it takes to qualify for a mortgage, how to save for a down payment and even provide information regarding down payment assistance.
Should you have additional questions or when you are ready to start your search after completing the classes. please be sure to email either Theresa or Marie and they can give you some one on one coaching and personal advice that will take you on the next step of your journey to home ownership.
Here is the link to the work shops offered by the Consumer Credit Counseling Service (CCCS) of Central Florida
Right now I don?t see a schedule update on their site for Hillsboro County, but they do have dates for Pasco and Pinellas Counties?just click on the associated links
- Pasco County Schedule for 2008
- Pinellas County Schedule for 2008
Be sure to check back for tomorrows post covering ? why now is the best time to buy your first home in Florida !
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