Q1 2008 Mortgage Statistics for Florida and Tampa Bay

The results are in for the first quarter and it is not a pretty picture on the foreclosure front here in Florida or for that matter the Tampa Real Estate Market.

Two reports this week that are interesting depending on how you can decipher the content ? The first report is by Trans Union. They put together a trended analysis report that reviews 2007 fourth quarter data to compile their latest statistics and then forecast for 2008. They are reporting that Florida delinquent mortgages have increased by 34 %.

The top three areas showing the largest growth in delinquency from previous quarters are Florida at (34 percent), California (33 percent) and Arizona (32 percent).

“The market continues to see the effect of the mortgage crisis in the steeply increasing mortgage delinquency rates among borrowers across the country,” said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in Trans Union’s financial services group.

The national 60-day mortgage borrower delinquency rate is expected to continue to rise throughout 2008 from a value of nearly 3.0 percent in the 4th quarter of 2007 to 4.0 percent or greater by year end.

On another note: Realty Trac released their quarterly report on the U.S. Foreclosure Market which states that “Foreclosure activity has increased by 23 % in the first quarter of 2008.” They are reporting that Nevada, California, Arizona posted the top state foreclosure rates.

“Foreclosure filings were reported on 87,893 Florida properties during the first quarter, the second highest state total and giving Florida the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure rate — one in every 97 households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Foreclosure activity in the state was up 17 percent from the previous quarter and up 178 percent from the first quarter of 2007.”

“The highest ranked Florida metro area was Fort Lauderdale, which ranked No. 8 with one in every 73 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Other Florida metro areas in the top 20 included Orlando at No. 13, Miami at No. 14 and Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice at No. 15. The foreclosure rate in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater ranked No. 21.”

So this actually shows that the Tampa and St. Petersburg Real Estate areas are faring a bit better on the over all State level.

While the numbers on a whole do not look too promising, this is still a positive note for the Tampa Bay Area Housing Markets, and once again affirms the prediction by our States Economist that Tampa Real Estate markets will recover first starting with Pasco County.

If you want to find out specific information on Foreclosure statistics in your area and or find out which homes are in foreclosure or are on the auction list, you can go to RealtyTracs home page, click on the interactive map. For example click on the US Map, in the Florida area, this will then pull up a State Map where you can enter in a specific county. For example Pasco County and then click on search.

You will then be presented with the break down of total number of homes in pre-foreclosure, auction, bank owned etc. You can gain some pretty good information for free however, to see specifics on taxes etc you have to have a paid membership. The site looks complex but is fairly easy to navigate. Check back tomorrow and I will post a quick video over-view to walk you through the process.

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NAR released their March 2008 report and the picture is still not very pretty.

Resale homes continued to drop and now stand at 19.3 percent off of March 2007 numbers. In addition, the media resale home price continued it’s spiral and fell another 7.7 percent compared to the same month in 2007. The median price in 2007 was $217,400. and as of March 31, 2008 it now stands at $200,700.

According to NAR “Regionally, sales rose in the Northeast and West but fell in the Midwest and South.”

So how does the picture differ her in the Tampa Real Estate Market ?

Well according to recent report by the West Pasco Board of Realtors, the Pasco County market has actually had two very good months back to back that prove while the bottom is still elusive in most places it appears to be settling some in other areas. It does appear that their is still more room for prices to drop before the national average stabilizes though.

What is interesting in the Pasco County scenario is that a Florida Economist “Hank” Fishkind, had predicted that areas within the Tampa Bay would recover before others in the state. It may be a bit optimistic at this point to say he his right only more time will tell.

If you are a regular reader to this Blog, then you might recall this post back in February “Florida’s indifferent real estate market in Tampa…huh ? The significance of this post is the comments made by Mr. Fishkind, with specific reference to Pasco County Real Estate he said”

1. HOME SALES: Pasco and Hernando counties’ housing markets have hit bottom and are most likely to start the the turn around ?.this will be seen later in the year. Hillsborough County is close to the bottom, but Pinellas County has a few more months in this downturn before home sales and prices will stabilize.

You can down-load a copy of Dr. Hank Fishkinds Power Point report in PDF format entitled **Economic Outlook U.S. and Tampa Bay/Bay Area Real Estate Council.

** Be sure to check out pages 28 to 63 of the PDF for Tampa Counties (158 to 197 as listed on the lower right corner of the presentation).

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The current situation here in the Tampa Real Estate Market has some would be homeowners downright frustrated. Wondering when the market will bottom out so buyers can buy at the best price or for sellers wondering when the buyers will get off the fence and buy what they are selling now.

If it’s not a good time to buy then it sure has gotten a lot better to renovate or build. This time a year ago if you could find the material for a renovation it was still at a pretty high market value. Then try to even get an appointment with an architect. According to a recent Wall-Street Journal article “The Upside to the Downturn Contractors Return Calls, Materials Cost Less.. It appears that it may be a good time to:

• renovate
• be shopping for an architect
• shop for a builder

With a lot of folks from the housing industry short on work here in Florida, you can bet that you will have no problem finding a contractor to help with a home project.

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