Q1 2008 Mortgage Statistics for Florida and Tampa Bay
May 1, 2008
The results are in for the first quarter and it is not a pretty picture on the foreclosure front here in Florida or for that matter the Tampa Real Estate Market.
Two reports this week that are interesting depending on how you can decipher the content ? The first report is by Trans Union. They put together a trended analysis report that reviews 2007 fourth quarter data to compile their latest statistics and then forecast for 2008. They are reporting that Florida delinquent mortgages have increased by 34 %.
The top three areas showing the largest growth in delinquency from previous quarters are Florida at (34 percent), California (33 percent) and Arizona (32 percent).
“The market continues to see the effect of the mortgage crisis in the steeply increasing mortgage delinquency rates among borrowers across the country,” said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in Trans Union’s financial services group.
The national 60-day mortgage borrower delinquency rate is expected to continue to rise throughout 2008 from a value of nearly 3.0 percent in the 4th quarter of 2007 to 4.0 percent or greater by year end.
On another note: Realty Trac released their quarterly report on the U.S. Foreclosure Market which states that “Foreclosure activity has increased by 23 % in the first quarter of 2008.” They are reporting that Nevada, California, Arizona posted the top state foreclosure rates.
“Foreclosure filings were reported on 87,893 Florida properties during the first quarter, the second highest state total and giving Florida the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure rate — one in every 97 households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Foreclosure activity in the state was up 17 percent from the previous quarter and up 178 percent from the first quarter of 2007.”
“The highest ranked Florida metro area was Fort Lauderdale, which ranked No. 8 with one in every 73 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Other Florida metro areas in the top 20 included Orlando at No. 13, Miami at No. 14 and Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice at No. 15. The foreclosure rate in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater ranked No. 21.”
So this actually shows that the Tampa and St. Petersburg Real Estate areas are faring a bit better on the over all State level.
While the numbers on a whole do not look too promising, this is still a positive note for the Tampa Bay Area Housing Markets, and once again affirms the prediction by our States Economist that Tampa Real Estate markets will recover first starting with Pasco County.
If you want to find out specific information on Foreclosure statistics in your area and or find out which homes are in foreclosure or are on the auction list, you can go to RealtyTracs home page, click on the interactive map. For example click on the US Map, in the Florida area, this will then pull up a State Map where you can enter in a specific county. For example Pasco County and then click on search.
You will then be presented with the break down of total number of homes in pre-foreclosure, auction, bank owned etc. You can gain some pretty good information for free however, to see specifics on taxes etc you have to have a paid membership. The site looks complex but is fairly easy to navigate. Check back tomorrow and I will post a quick video over-view to walk you through the process.
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Florida’s indifferent real estate market in Tampa…huh ?
February 9, 2008
ep, it?s that time again. The NAR Real Estate forecast report was released on Thursday February 7th. As is usual with NAR?s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, he mixes it up to the point you just have to say ?huh ?
The title of the report itself really sets it up. ?Existing-Home Sales to Hold in Narrow Range, then Begin Upward Trend??huh ?
This is the summary of the report by NAR: Soft market conditions are forecast to continue for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with improvement expected by the second half of this year if loan limits are increased?.. huh ?
Current housing conditions vary widely? huh ?
You can review the report your self from the link above but from all accounts they are saying the market is so, so?.which according to the dictionary I checked means it?s an indifferent market?huh ?
Well now that I have dispensed with the things that make you go huh ?
The real meat and potatoes came out about (2) days earlier from a local source that I find a bit more reliable or credible, however you like to portray the data, NAR does not really have a great track record of getting to the issue at heart without um..making you say huh ? OK I promise no more. Anyhow, the source of the data is an economic and financial consulting firm based here in Florida called FISHKIND and associates. At least as it pertains to Florida?s economic forecast they have the data to back up what they talk about. Dr. Hank Fishkind is often referred to in the Florida media as ?Florida’s best known economist ?. Dr. Fishkind presented his report to the Bay Area Real Estate Council on February 5th, 2008
Since our business is all about Florida?s Tampa Bay Area, hence Greater Tampa Bay Area Real Estate, we were really pleased to see that the reporting data shows that a good portion of the Tampa markets may have hit bottom and are ready for the turnaround to begin.
A few of the highlights of Hank Fishkinds February 5 meeting are:
1. HOME SALES: Pasco and Hernando counties’ housing markets have hit bottom and are most likely to start the the turn around ?.this will be seen later in the year. Hillsborough County is close to the bottom, but Pinellas County has a few more months in this downturn before home sales and prices will stabilize.
2. FORECLOSURES: While bad in certain neighborhoods, Dr. Fishkind thinks foreclosures have received way more press than they deserve. Measured against the total housing market here, they’re a “thimble in the ocean.”
3. AMENDMENT 1 PROPERTY TAX CUTS: Don’t expect any noticeable stimulus from tax cuts this year. We won’t get a tax break until next year. Plus people are still having difficulty selling their houses, making the portability issue a moot point.
4. CONDO CRISIS: Dr. Fishkind was not too high on condos in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. He said oversupply, combined with limited sales, “makes me nervous.” He sees no bottom yet here.
5. MORTGAGE RATES: Good news here. Dr. Fishkind expects home loan rates for credit worthy borrowers to continue to drop to below 5 percent this year. If you have equity left in your home , it will be a good time to refinance.
You can down-load a copy of Dr. Hank Fishkinds Power Point report in PDF format entitled **Economic Outlook U.S. and Tampa Bay/Bay Area Real Estate Council.
** Be sure to check out pages 28 to 63 of the PDF for Tampa Counties (158 to 197 as listed on the lower right corner of the presentation).
Dr. Fishkind also spoke on local Orlando Radio station with regards to the Amendment 1 Property Tax cuts. You can access the audio by clicking in this link >> Click here to listen to story.. (You don?t need an ipod to listen. If you have a PC with Windows Media Player installed ?..no problem.)
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January 21, 2008
I wrote a post back in early November last year, Is now the right time to buy your Florida home ? The comments then are just as apropos now as they were then. However, I have some interesting recent data to add to this that lends even more support and definitively answers the question.
After reviewing the search word index over the last 45 days or so, I see a pattern that is emerging. That of many blog readers inquiring if it is safe to buy in Florida ? It would also appear that lot?s of buyers or should I say prospective buyers, have been sitting on the fence and many have been typing in the search engines all types of long tail questions that all center on the condition of the Florida Housing Market.
A lot of activity in the media and in and around the State itself is reason enough for a lot of the speculation and confusion among would be buyers.
On the one side you have the media that continues to projecting doom and gloom on the economy. You can expect this will continue throughout the year. But hey it?s an election year, why do you think this gets tons of press every day ?
The latest scare out on Friday was from a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association. This report talks about Baby Boomers and the Housing bubble, with yet another spin. The original report was published early in the week and then was carried by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday and by Friday it was over on Inman’s Blog. This latest scare says that the housing bubble now pails in comparison to what will happen when the Baby Boomers stop buying houses.
Right now there is so much speculation out there on the national markets. However, the one thing that is verifiable right here and now, in the Greater Tampa Florida Bay Area it?s time to buy a house now.
If you continue to sit on the fence you will lose a valuable opportunity to get a great deal at a mortgage rate that you will most likely not see again for some time to come.
Yes you will continue to hear negative things in the press. The economy has issues, and if the fed lowers the borrowing rate too-much it will spook the investing community and then Mortgage Rates will go up, not down.
Will the price of housing continue to move down ? Possibly, but there is opportunity a plenty right now and it is a true buyers market in Florida. If you wait, you then have to weigh the risk of a larger mortgage vs the small incremental price reduction you might see by waiting it out.
Call your local Realtor and ask them. Heck just click on the MLS link on our site (at the top of the page – looks like the one right below this paragraph) and you can search the entire State of Florida, take a look at the wonderful opportunities that await you in our great state.
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