Q1 2008 Mortgage Statistics for Florida and Tampa Bay
May 1, 2008
The results are in for the first quarter and it is not a pretty picture on the foreclosure front here in Florida or for that matter the Tampa Real Estate Market.
Two reports this week that are interesting depending on how you can decipher the content ? The first report is by Trans Union. They put together a trended analysis report that reviews 2007 fourth quarter data to compile their latest statistics and then forecast for 2008. They are reporting that Florida delinquent mortgages have increased by 34 %.
The top three areas showing the largest growth in delinquency from previous quarters are Florida at (34 percent), California (33 percent) and Arizona (32 percent).
“The market continues to see the effect of the mortgage crisis in the steeply increasing mortgage delinquency rates among borrowers across the country,” said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in Trans Union’s financial services group.
The national 60-day mortgage borrower delinquency rate is expected to continue to rise throughout 2008 from a value of nearly 3.0 percent in the 4th quarter of 2007 to 4.0 percent or greater by year end.
On another note: Realty Trac released their quarterly report on the U.S. Foreclosure Market which states that “Foreclosure activity has increased by 23 % in the first quarter of 2008.” They are reporting that Nevada, California, Arizona posted the top state foreclosure rates.
“Foreclosure filings were reported on 87,893 Florida properties during the first quarter, the second highest state total and giving Florida the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure rate — one in every 97 households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Foreclosure activity in the state was up 17 percent from the previous quarter and up 178 percent from the first quarter of 2007.”
“The highest ranked Florida metro area was Fort Lauderdale, which ranked No. 8 with one in every 73 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Other Florida metro areas in the top 20 included Orlando at No. 13, Miami at No. 14 and Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice at No. 15. The foreclosure rate in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater ranked No. 21.”
So this actually shows that the Tampa and St. Petersburg Real Estate areas are faring a bit better on the over all State level.
While the numbers on a whole do not look too promising, this is still a positive note for the Tampa Bay Area Housing Markets, and once again affirms the prediction by our States Economist that Tampa Real Estate markets will recover first starting with Pasco County.
If you want to find out specific information on Foreclosure statistics in your area and or find out which homes are in foreclosure or are on the auction list, you can go to RealtyTracs home page, click on the interactive map. For example click on the US Map, in the Florida area, this will then pull up a State Map where you can enter in a specific county. For example Pasco County and then click on search.
You will then be presented with the break down of total number of homes in pre-foreclosure, auction, bank owned etc. You can gain some pretty good information for free however, to see specifics on taxes etc you have to have a paid membership. The site looks complex but is fairly easy to navigate. Check back tomorrow and I will post a quick video over-view to walk you through the process.
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Exisiting home sales bottom still elusive
April 22, 2008
NAR released their March 2008 report and the picture is still not very pretty.
Resale homes continued to drop and now stand at 19.3 percent off of March 2007 numbers. In addition, the media resale home price continued it’s spiral and fell another 7.7 percent compared to the same month in 2007. The median price in 2007 was $217,400. and as of March 31, 2008 it now stands at $200,700.
According to NAR “Regionally, sales rose in the Northeast and West but fell in the Midwest and South.”
So how does the picture differ her in the Tampa Real Estate Market ?
Well according to recent report by the West Pasco Board of Realtors, the Pasco County market has actually had two very good months back to back that prove while the bottom is still elusive in most places it appears to be settling some in other areas. It does appear that their is still more room for prices to drop before the national average stabilizes though.
What is interesting in the Pasco County scenario is that a Florida Economist “Hank” Fishkind, had predicted that areas within the Tampa Bay would recover before others in the state. It may be a bit optimistic at this point to say he his right only more time will tell.
If you are a regular reader to this Blog, then you might recall this post back in February “Florida’s indifferent real estate market in Tampa…huh ? The significance of this post is the comments made by Mr. Fishkind, with specific reference to Pasco County Real Estate he said”
1. HOME SALES: Pasco and Hernando counties’ housing markets have hit bottom and are most likely to start the the turn around ?.this will be seen later in the year. Hillsborough County is close to the bottom, but Pinellas County has a few more months in this downturn before home sales and prices will stabilize.
You can down-load a copy of Dr. Hank Fishkinds Power Point report in PDF format entitled **Economic Outlook U.S. and Tampa Bay/Bay Area Real Estate Council
.
** Be sure to check out pages 28 to 63 of the PDF for Tampa Counties (158 to 197 as listed on the lower right corner of the presentation).
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February 13, 2008
A new report from Zillow.com shows home values dropped nationwide by 3%. Chief Financial Officer Spencer Rascoff discusses which cities saw the largest declines.
Time for little cold water on the face for those that have obviously been asleep for oh..the last year. Hey times are tough, I don?t need to rehash all the media hype of the last several months however, todays news has continued with fact that Mortgage Applications volumes decreased this last week in large part because the interest rates started creeping back up again. The Wall Street Journal reported on Zillows market data from Monday, that outlines the Bubble Areas of California and Florida. Basically, they reported that prices are still falling and may continue to fall more.
So where does this leave the home owner that really wants to sell their home ? Well first off you have to be really motivated to sell. Yes it is difficult the house you are selling was to bank role your retirement plan and so you have a certain number that you feel you have to sell at. Sound familiar ? If this is you then you had better get your head out of the sand. Either take your home of the market and forgo that retirement plan for a year or two or reduce your house to what your realtor says it should sell at. And even then you need to be prepared to lower the price even more again.
That is if you want to really sell your home ? Now maybe you don?t have retirement in mind, but you wanted to profit from your sale. Who doesn?t ? However, if you have had your home for some time, you have a lot of room to work with. It is unfortunate that homes are over valued. And yes that means the very one you are trying to sell now.
You can read more of this article by the WSJ concerning your R.O.I. here:
As I am writing this, I am also reminded of an article I read in January?s issue of Realtor Magazine discussing this issue of Realtors trying to get Sellers to Get Real. They did cover both ends of the spectrum and covered unrealistic buyers expectations too. The larger issue that we face here in Florida is the fact that our homes are over valued. It is not personal, believe me, we bought into a new home at near the top of the market. If we had to sell today we would loose a lot, but that?s just what the market bares right now and being realistic is the only way to keep moving forward.
If you are a Realtor and have ?clients who won?t budge from unreasonable thinking,? then you may have to try an alternative approach to the one you are currently using. One of those items that I find no one has mentioned is the use of BLOGS. Yep, give them the web site address here or email them the link to this article. They can get mad as hell at me, but I have included the links to the statistics within this article.
I can?t say it any better than this ?When you have clients or prospects that are being unreasonable, it?s your job to help them revise their expectations based on the market reality.? I have to give credit where it?s due. This quote is from Kelle Sparta?s article that I mentioned above. (Kelly is the author of The Consultative Real Estate Agent).
In closing, it appears that the signs of denial for Sellers are still all over the map here in Florida and California. . Inman news covers it fairly well in their article entitled Denial: Didn?t we do this stage already ?
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How to stop foreclosure – 101
January 30, 2008
According to a New Report published yesterday by Realty Trac US Foreclosure activity increased 75% in 2007 over 2006 figures.
Nevada hit # 1 with Florida #2 followed by Michigan to round out the top 3.
The states with the highest household foreclosure rate were
1. Nevada (3.38 percent)
2. Florida (2 percent)
3. Michigan (1.95 percent)
4. California (1.92 percent)
5. Colorado (1.92 percent)
6. Ohio (1.8 percent)
7. Georgia (1.57 percent)
8. Arizona (1.52 percent)
9. Illinois (1.25 percent)
10.Indiana (1.03 percent)The U.S. average was 1.03 percent.
Following fresh on the report release was an interesting piece from the Today Show Wednesday, entitled Foreclosure 101 -
This interview is with Barbara Corcoran a so called business baroness. She is listed as one of the most powerful brokers in the U.S. Barbara is legendary for being the most well-known name in New York real estate and for having personally sold only three apartments. She is a Real Estate contributor on the payroll of MSNBC, who produces the Today Show.
In this news segment they break down exactly how a foreclosure process works.
Some of the not so pretty points:
- Foreclosures up 75% in the last year
- 1 out of every 100 homes are in Foreclosures
- 40% of Las Vegas Homes are in Foreclosure
- Most People don?t return calls to the bank
- Foreclosure starts after missing 3 payments
- Filing Bankruptcy doubles the time you can stay in your house
- Takes 3?18 Months before you lose your home
- Bankruptcy stall foreclosure
- It takes 6 years to restore your credit after foreclosure
- Bank Loses Average of $59,000 for each foreclosure
How to Stop a Foreclosure:
- Short Sale
- Apply for FHA Loan
- Ask for a reduced Payment
- Return the Deed
The take away from this according to Barbara, ?People don?t realize they have more muscle than they think when they are in financial trouble?.
I invite you to comment on this after viewing the video.
What are your thoughts ?
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January 21, 2008
I wrote a post back in early November last year, Is now the right time to buy your Florida home ? The comments then are just as apropos now as they were then. However, I have some interesting recent data to add to this that lends even more support and definitively answers the question.
After reviewing the search word index over the last 45 days or so, I see a pattern that is emerging. That of many blog readers inquiring if it is safe to buy in Florida ? It would also appear that lot?s of buyers or should I say prospective buyers, have been sitting on the fence and many have been typing in the search engines all types of long tail questions that all center on the condition of the Florida Housing Market.
A lot of activity in the media and in and around the State itself is reason enough for a lot of the speculation and confusion among would be buyers.
On the one side you have the media that continues to projecting doom and gloom on the economy. You can expect this will continue throughout the year. But hey it?s an election year, why do you think this gets tons of press every day ?
The latest scare out on Friday was from a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association. This report talks about Baby Boomers and the Housing bubble, with yet another spin. The original report was published early in the week and then was carried by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday and by Friday it was over on Inman’s Blog. This latest scare says that the housing bubble now pails in comparison to what will happen when the Baby Boomers stop buying houses.
Right now there is so much speculation out there on the national markets. However, the one thing that is verifiable right here and now, in the Greater Tampa Florida Bay Area it?s time to buy a house now.
If you continue to sit on the fence you will lose a valuable opportunity to get a great deal at a mortgage rate that you will most likely not see again for some time to come.
Yes you will continue to hear negative things in the press. The economy has issues, and if the fed lowers the borrowing rate too-much it will spook the investing community and then Mortgage Rates will go up, not down.
Will the price of housing continue to move down ? Possibly, but there is opportunity a plenty right now and it is a true buyers market in Florida. If you wait, you then have to weigh the risk of a larger mortgage vs the small incremental price reduction you might see by waiting it out.
Call your local Realtor and ask them. Heck just click on the MLS link on our site (at the top of the page – looks like the one right below this paragraph) and you can search the entire State of Florida, take a look at the wonderful opportunities that await you in our great state.
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